“Our research should ultimately become obsolete,” says VU Amsterdam scientist Gerard van der Meijden. Alongside Cees Withagen and two fellow researchers, he studied carbon capture, utilisation and storage — technologies crucial for the energy transition. Which scenario leads to the optimal balance between societal benefits and losses?
Gerard, an associate professor of environmental economics, begins by explaining carbon emissions and capture to contextualise his findings. “As a society, we want to limit carbon emissions,” he says. “The greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (shortened to its chemical name of CO2) causes global warming. It’s released when fossil fuels are burned. The global climate target is to keep this temperature rise within 2°C by 2050, which comes with a carbon budget.”
In addition to reducing carbon emissions, limiting the rise in temperature is possible through two techniques: carbon capture and carbon storage.
- In the case of carbon capture, CO2 is captured during combustion and stored underground in saline aquifers or depleted gas fields.
- The captured CO2 can also be used: by pumping CO2 into active oil and gas fields, the pressure there is increased. This makes future oil and gas extraction easier and therefore cheaper.
Intervening after the fact
With carbon capture and storage, you intervene at the end of the emissions process rather than beforehand. Is that ideal? Gerard explains: “For now, carbon capture is inevitable in parts of heavy industry. Steel and fertiliser production require intense heating, and cement production also leads to carbon emissions. There’s no affordable, sustainable alternative yet. Without capturing CO2, the energy transition will be more expensive. And it’s crucial to keep the energy transition affordable; otherwise, it won’t have political or societal support.”
Not the solution, but acceptable in the meantime
Carbon capture, utilisation and storage are necessary keep the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy somewhat affordable. But Gerard stresses that it’s not the only way to limit global warming. “Decarbonisation is the most significant part of the solution. That means using less fossil fuels and more renewable energy. We won’t meet the climate target if we continue to rely on oil and gas.”
Gerard has researched how much CO2 needs to be captured, utilised and stored during the transition period. Under what conditions and at what stages can these techniques be optimally deployed? He and his colleagues developed an economic model with various scenarios aiming for the optimum social outcome.
First use, then store CO2
In the scenario with the best social outcome, the focus for the coming decades is on storing captured CO2 in active oil and gas fields. This makes oil and gas extraction easier and therefore cheaper. At the start of the energy transition, demand for oil and gas is still high, so pumping CO2 into existing reservoirs is highly profitable – boosting outcomes for society.
Later, as the carbon budget is further depleted, storing CO2 becomes cheaper — in empty gas fields beneath the seabed, for example. According to the research, this could happen within a few decades.
Making the clean energy transition attractive to companies
If we continue on our current path, we will emit too much CO2 and fail to reach the optimum social scenario. That’s why Gerard van der Meijden advocates for global action: “Europe is responsible for less than 10% of global carbon emissions. Even if we reduce our emissions to zero, it won’t be enough.”
Two things are needed according to the environmental economist: putting a price on carbon emissions and subsidising clean technologies. “There needs to be a global price on emissions so that companies have an incentive to reduce them. The current price is too low, and a significant proportion of emissions — around 75% worldwide — has no price at all.”
In addition, clean technologies must be subsidised to make innovation worthwhile.
A scientist’s contribution
“I can contribute a little to the scientific knowledge about carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Based on that, policies can be developed. I’m under no illusion that this will happen immediately. I sometimes struggle with this: what is your actual contribution as a scientist? Should we all be protesting on the A12? I haven’t figured that out yet.
“What I do know is that research into carbon capture helps raise awareness of both the problem and the solution. VU Amsterdam is a logical place to do this, as the university is very active in the field of sustainability.”
Gerard expects clean energy technologies to become increasingly cheaper. And carbon capture, utilisation and storage will be used less in the coming decades. “Ultimately, our research will become obsolete.”
This article is a repost from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam’s Research Highlights.
November 2024